observed by real signal
Real Signal Trust Report
November 2026 — rolling 30d window. Updated continuously, formally re-read monthly.
Why this page exists
Most platforms publish what they sent. Real Signal publishes what it sent, what it withheld, how often the forecast was right, and how often silence was the right call. Aggregate-only — no individual user, no individual merchant is ever surfaced.
Silence correctness · last 30 days
100% of 1000 gradable silences were the right call. Vindicated 1000; missed 0.
Prediction accuracy
64% across 8622 revealed predictions in the last 30 days. 19890 sealed in the same window.
| generator | accuracy | n |
|---|---|---|
| silence correctness | 100% | 2772 |
| pocket projection 120m | 58% | 1950 |
| pocket projection 180m | 59% | 1950 |
| pocket projection 60m | 57% | 1950 |
Signals emitted
561 narrations rendered in the last 30 days.
| tier | count |
|---|---|
| unspecified | 561 |
Signals withheld
0 emissions deferred in the last 30 days. Each carries its blocking reason.
no deferred signals in the window.
Failure analysis
- wrong gate fired (silence missed a real moment): 0
- threshold too strict (forecast wrong by more than 0.5): 518