observed by real signal
Real Signal Trust Report
July 2026 — rolling 30d window. Updated continuously, formally re-read monthly.
Why this page exists
Most platforms publish what they sent. Real Signal publishes what it sent, what it withheld, how often the forecast was right, and how often silence was the right call. Aggregate-only — no individual user, no individual merchant is ever surfaced.
Silence correctness · last 30 days
100% of 1000 gradable silences were the right call. Vindicated 999; missed 1.
Prediction accuracy
0% across 1000 revealed predictions in the last 30 days. 88930 sealed in the same window.
| generator | accuracy | n |
|---|---|---|
| pocket projection 120m | 0% | 1000 |
Signals emitted
58 narrations rendered in the last 30 days.
| tier | count |
|---|---|
| unspecified | 58 |
Signals withheld
1,000 emissions deferred in the last 30 days. Each carries its blocking reason.
| gate | count |
|---|---|
| spam limit | 1000 |
Failure analysis
- wrong gate fired (silence missed a real moment): 0
- threshold too strict (forecast wrong by more than 0.5): 336